04 · SIMULATION · WARGAMING LITE
Test the situation against perturbations
Toggle adverse conditions to project how each COA's expected time, risk reduction, and confidence evolve.
SCENARIO SNAPSHOT ·COA-4NO SAVED SCENARIO
V-01
VARIABLES
MONTE-CARLO 1 024 RUNS
BASELINE RISK
72
/ 100
PROJECTED RISK
72
/ 100
RESPONSE WINDOW
38
min
P-01
PROJECTED PICTURE
MV NORDIC STAR
AIS OK
MV BALTICA
AIS OK
FISHING FLEET
AIS OK
UNKNOWN-273
7.0 NM · BRG 335°
UAV-?
420 m · 240°
BRAVO-2
ETA 24 min
N ↑|SCALE 1:250 000|WGS-84
LIVE FEED
SECTOR 7 · NORTH SEA · 245° / 18 kt
UNKNOWN→ASSET 7.0 NM
I-01
SCENARIO IMPACT SUMMARY
Baseline scenario unchanged. Composite risk holds at 72 / 100. Focus: COA-4 Hybrid Surveillance + Standby — projected 64% risk ↓ at conf 0.79 (15–28 min).
Simulation outputs are advisory. Run multiple scenarios before commitment.
C-01
BASELINE — TOGGLE VARIABLES TO PROJECTCOA IMPACT MATRIX
| COA | EXPECTED TIME | RISK REDUCTION | CONFIDENCE | STATUS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COA-1 Monitor & Verify | 0–15 min | 22% | 0.78 | ⚠ DEGRADED | ○ |
COA-2 Dispatch Patrol Team | 24–35 min | 58% | 0.84 | VIABLE | ○ |
COA-3 Escalate to Joint Command | 10 min handoff | 71% | 0.69 | STANDBY | ○ |
COA-4 Hybrid Surveillance + Standby | 15–28 min | 64% | 0.79 | ★ RECOMMENDED | ● FOCUS |
CLICK A ROW TO FOCUS · APPROVED COA AUTO-FOCUSED · ALL COMPARISONS SHARE SEED BASELINE